BrExit economics – the right choice?  Economics, Governance and History

BrExit economics – the right choice?  Economics, Governance and History

The economics an “exit” of Britain (BrExit) from the European Union (EU) seem to be compelling and may well determine what has always been an emotional and nationalistic debate, fueled by a combination of intrusive and incompetent EU governance. This Spring 2016 period has seen the notion of a BrExit disparaged by the ‘elites’. As with the recent Scottish referendum, despite the fervor, cool-headed logic convinced Scottish voters; that may well be the case on 23 June 2016.

The arguments <http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/video/AwczZwMTE6bIhPdCIP0_UEBPJofpDmu8?page=2> to remain (“BreRemain”) make sense but are not compelling. They do not offset the economic advantages of a BrExit.

Beyond the economics, there is the deep-seated resentment of the EU. It has become too political as it drives towards an increasingly federalist super-state.

It is interesting how ‘big business’ is spending money to support the BreRemain campaign. One global bank has already spent £75 million <http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-europe-brexit-companies-idUKKCN0V027B £75> – good use of shareholders and taxpayers funds? Very few consultancies, such as McKinsey <http://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/oscars/mckinseys-barton-economic-volatility-here-to-stay/vi-BBplI8T> or Accenture <www.accenture.com> are willing to express a view – perhaps so as not to jeopardise client relationships.

The pros and cons have been well set out in a recent research paper at ResearchGate <https://www.researchgate.net/publication/298409053_BrExit_economics_-_the_right_choice_Economics_Governance_and_History>; a view echoed by other analysts, such as Capital Economics <http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article4692947.ece>. In short:

  • Britain will never adopt the Euro
  • Without the Euro, Britain will never be able to remain at the EU’ “top table” as an equal with Germany
  • The costs of membership are not productive and increasing
  • Exits costs are overstated
  • There are a number of viable alternatives for Britain instead of its current EU membership
  • The EU is losing its influence globally, stifling even the diminished state of Britain
  • Finally, throughout its history Britain has never really supported any European project.

As Boris Johnstone recently described matters<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html>, Britain feels like a: “prisoner escaping jail”; as the EU’s federalist development has never sat well with Britain’s perspective, needs nor history.

On 23rd June Britons may well choose to vote to escape, as the economics are inescapable and the arguments compelling.

Justin Jenk is business professional with a successful career as a manager, advisor, investor and board member. He is a graduate of Oxford and Harvard. Justin can be found at justinjenk.com

Justin Jenk is business professional with a successful career as a manager, advisor, investor and board member. He is a graduate of Oxford and Harvard. Justin can be found at justinjenk.com

 

 

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