Ultron in the room: Singularity meets FO Legacies
(This article is published in the ‘GFOC Journal” June 2023: https://www.globalfamilyofficecommunity.com/brands/gfoc-journal/)
The coming of the “Singularity” (predicted by 2030) may pose a severe, if not terminal, threat to the current, carefully laid Legacy plans of Family Offices (FOs). NextGens especially, take note!
The concept of a "Legacy" refers to something that is passed on from one generation to the next.
The term "Singularity" typically refers to the hypothetical point in the future, when artificial general intelligence (AI or AGI) will improve itself at an exponential rate. Becoming self-aware, the Singularity will have surpassed the capabilities of human intelligence and related control. It has no name, some call it “Loab”; but it can depict itself.
The veritable genie is pushing out of the bottle. Singularity could pose a fundamental threat to Society - in all its forms and manifestations. Whether an Armageddon cry or not, the implications of the conflation of these two concepts – Legacy and Singularity - needs to be explored by FOs.
FOs represent almost 10% of the world's wealth; highly concentrated in relatively few hands. Parriarchs, and their NextGen heirs, have both the resources and skills to shape current FO business constructs and practices to meet this challenge by this decade’s end. Do they have the will to match these resources and abilities?
The challenge for FO legacies - well suited for Next Gens - is proactively leveraging, if not shaping, AGI developments. Doing so they can future-proof their Legacies, with related actions for the unforeseen seen and unintended consequences.
Legacy 2.0
The family business is one of Society's enduring constructs. Yet, in the US, just 25% of new companies survive more than 15 years; only 0.5% celebrate a centenary. Durability is a rare achievement.
Many FO leaders view it as a moral obligation to pass the 'business' on in a better state. Legacy is a largely a matter of dealing with Stewardship. All Legacy plans (and their preparations) may be made redundant or irrelevant, if Singularity-AGI is not a central factor within them.
Singularity's impact – Ultron in the house
The fear is that Singular AGI's goals may not coincide with those of Humanity. A tension of co-existence would arise, with the risk of 'first contact'. It is conceivable, if not probable, that a super-intelligent AGI could simply eliminate the intellectually inferior human race.
This issue is one of the many worrying both the proponents and critics of the Singularity.
A pre-Singularity world is already emerging at pace; changing the way Businesses and Governments think about work, productivity and Society's priorities. 'Machines' are increasingly able to perform tasks once thought to be the exclusive domaine of human workers.
ChatGPT, and its ilk, are causing widening unemployment for IT, advertising, academic and clerical staff, as well as others.
Central banks’ adoption of crypto-based digital currencies will have huge adverse ramifications to the world of finance and established banking industry.
Distributed Ledger Technology could become the new backbone of economies and societies.
A 2023 'World Economic Forum' poll found that 90% of participants viewed a "catastrophic cyber event" as "likely" within the next two years.
Singularity-AGI, as the sole thinking focal point of knowledge, will be able to harness computer-genetic-nano-robotic aspects. It could render a wholly new construct, probably not with mankind's approval. 'Quo Vadis?'
In extremis, Singularity-AGI would impact our social and political systems, leading to significant economic disruption and inequality of current systems. Some utopians believe the route to Singularity will bring forth a more equal and just world; with transparency, equal distribution of resources to all and objective justice. One may see further ‘societies within society’ (an extreme extension of today’s Social Media).
At the root of all considerations are the ethical and moral questions. Guns don’t kill people; people do. The development, deployment, malicious use and (lost) control of AGI as well as the unintended consequences is a digitally independent set of unknown-unknowns. Take your pick of end-game fictional dystopian literature: “1984-A Brave New World-Colossus-Terminator-The Matrix”.
Legacy and Technology
Considering the potential consequences (positive and negative) with any rapidly advancing technology is important. It is a truism that Technology's effects are increasing in pace and breadth. The 1966 ‘Star Trek’ Communicator became Motorola’s 1973 mobile phone. Bitcoin was a concept in 2010; and is now set to represent 5% of all asset wealth by the end of this year and growing.
FOs have the capacity to lead and drive a dialogue about a Technology future one wants to shape, if not create.
Consider Henry Ford’s legacy! His motivation was not to change the world; but to profit by providing affordable transportation to a large segment of America. His narrow commercial goal primed the transformation of our modern economy - changing the economic, social and political and physical landscapes of countries. Not only products, production processes and labour arrangements. Just consider the use of petro-chemicals, rise of the middle class globally, suburbia’s development and integrated logistics. Today, Bill Ford Jr still owns 2% of the outstanding stock (with 40% control). Legacy!
So how to consider Legacy? Perhaps, Legacy should be seen more as living process; nurtured and effected now. If Legacy is the objective, then FOs need to pause, consider and stand! Are they that brave?
Weather-eye to the horizon: what next?
Traditionally, FOs are concerned with transfers. On one hand inheritance, invariably financial, as well as other assets. But as importantly, the value system and beliefs of the Family. There are other charitable actions and ‘causes’, but are they appropriate for an impending Singularity?
FOs should seek answers by posing the appropriate questions.
What will this Singularity look like? When?
How will it affect the objectives of current FO structures? To what end?
How can my/our Legacy influence its arrival?
Can proactive Legacy actions harness AGI’s forces to protect the business for at least one truly future next generation out (say born in 2030)?
Does a charity gift, or green action, outweigh an AGI one?
Does a FO have a higher noble task; an ethical and moral duty to steward beyond their immediate families? Think of the Quaker innovators of Britain’s Industrial Revolution.
Further insights may be gleaned from understanding the continuing actions of the so-called “PayPal Mafia”. Nearly half of them (Elon Musk and Peter Thiel included), are at the forefront of AGI’s development. Since 2015, Microsoft has invested USD 13 billion dollars into openai.com. As of 2023, Google views itself on a two-year corrective path to avoid a major disruption. To be forewarned is to be forearmed.
FO legacies – now/future.
As the PayPal Mafia and its acolytes gaze across San Francisco Bay, with its Golden Gate; are their endeavours fully appreciated?
NextGens should consider getting ahead of the curve; influencing developments and planning to survive Singularity’s arrival – 2030 on the clock.
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Justin Jenk enjoys finding and connecting dots – pathfinder!
[This article is ChatGPT free.]
GFOC article Justin Jenk AI and FO legay
